-
U.S. dairy exports rise for 13th consecutive month
By USDEC Staff November 4, 2020- Tweet
U.S. milk solids exports through three quarters of 2020 up 15.8% over the previous year.
U.S. dairy export volume in milk solids equivalent (MSE) rose 5% in September, marking the 13th straight month of year-over-year increases. Through the first three quarters of 2020, the aggregate volume of major products (milk powder, whey, cheese, butter and lactose) grew 14% to 1.7 million metric tons (MT). That puts exports on pace to exceed 2018’s record year when the U.S. exported 2.2 million MT. Overall, the United States exported 16.2% of milk solids produced over the first nine months.
Driving September’s export expansion was strong year-over-year growth in whey products, primarily destined for China, and better than expected cheese exports to Asia-Pacific markets, despite domestic cheddar prices being above world market levels since May. Lower exports of NFDM/SMP in September were primarily a result of reduced purchases from Mexico as exports to Southeast Asia, Latin America, and China all grew.
U.S. September Exports by Product and Year
Looking at the data for September, three trends stand out:
1. U.S. export volumes are recovering to China.
With the Phase I agreement in place, growing Chinese demand and resurgent demand for whey, U.S. dairy export volumes to China are recovering to pre-retaliatory tariffs, pre-African Swine Fever levels.
This recovery has been primarily driven by whey products, where 2020 exports through September nearly doubled compared 2019 levels (+93%) to reach 149,094 MT. September was no different with whey export volume to China up 134%. While a large portion of this growth can be attributed to a recovering pig herd and extended tariff exemptions for whey permeate, the growth is not limited to whey destined for feed.
Volumes of whey proteins have expanded rapidly since Phase I was implemented. Volumes of WPC80+ are up 69% over 2019 and show few signs of slowing down. Expansion in China is crucial to growing U.S. whey exports overall as China has accounted for 35% of total whey traded internationally in 2020.
The recovery of U.S. market presence in China following Phase I is not limited to the whey stream. Through September, exports of SMP/NFDM went from negligible in 2019, just 3,721 MT, to 18,911 MT. While volumes and market share in China remain small relative to the U.S. presence in Southeast Asia and Mexico, inroads are clearly being made. A smoother and more secure trading environment for U.S. dairy in China, through measures such as extending retaliatory tariff exemptions for SMP and cheese, would help ensure this growth in exports is sustained and even expanded.
2. Southeast Asia’s continued emergence as the largest destination for U.S. milk.
Southeast Asia posted another strong month in September, extending a year-long growth streak. Through September, 28% of total U.S. exports in 2020 on a milk solids basis went to Southeast Asia. That is the equivalent of 4.5 percent of total U.S. milk production. Southeast Asia’s emergence as the largest destination for U.S. dairy has been primarily driven by U.S. SMP shipments to Southeast Asia’s six main markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam), which rose again in September, up 23%—a gain of 4,887 MT. Year-to-date, U.S. SMP shipments to the region were 259,311 MT, an increase of 106,037 MT.
The Philippines led buyers in September, with U.S. SMP up 219%. U.S. sales to Malaysia (+77%) and Thailand (+160%) were also strong. Together, they made up for a disappointing month in Vietnam that saw sales fall 69% to 1,901 MT, its smallest monthly import total for more than a year.
Although September whey shipments to Southeast Asia declined 6%, cheese sales for the month jumped 76%. to 2,432 MT. Particularly encouraging were shipments to Indonesia, the second-largest cheese buyer in the region.
U.S. cheese volume to Indonesia—traditionally a market dominated by New Zealand—more than doubled to over 1,000 MT in September, compared to the previous year. While only a single month of data, the increase may be a sign of increased U.S. supplier focus on winning share in a promising growth market as well as Indonesia’s ongoing effort to diversify its dairy sourcing—both of which bode well for the future.
3. Exports to Mexico lagged behind.
U.S. dairy shipments to Mexico lagged in September, particularly in the key categories of NFDM/SMP and cheese. Ongoing economic troubles, accentuated by the COVID-19 pandemic, have reduced demand from the U.S.’s largest market and southern neighbor.
NFDM/SMP shipments to Mexico fell 33% in September to 22,789 MT, while cheese sales declined 21% to 6,125 MT. Both products were facing strong months of comparison, so the declines are not as drastic as they sound. However, a return to growth—or even flat year-over-year purchasing—remains uncertain. For NFDM, reports of a tight budget for LICONSA (Mexico’s social program that supports milk powder purchasing) and the federal government’s effort to use more domestic milk in its feeding programs will add to the uncertainty. Moreover, a tight U.S. cheddar market makes U.S. cheese expensive for importers and Mexican consumers, especially when converted into pesos.
More positively though, Mexico’s economy rose sharply (+12%) in the third quarter as businesses began reopening after COVID-19 shutdowns. While year-to-date economic growth is still lagging, if the country can continue to rebound from the first half—and barring additional pandemic lockdowns—an improved economic situation could help reinvigorate demand moving forward.
More information, data and charts on specific products and markets can be found here.
Learn more about global dairy markets:-
U.S. dairy year-to-date exports up 16%
- September's Dairy Data Dashboard
-
U.S. dairy export volume up 16% through July
-
August's Dairy Data Dashboard
-
U.S. dairy export volume up 28% in June
Subscribe to the U.S. Dairy Exporter Blog
The U.S. Dairy Export Council fosters collaborative industry partnerships with processors, trading companies and others to enhance global demand for U.S. dairy products and ingredients. USDEC is primarily supported by Dairy Management Inc. through the dairy farmer checkoff. How to republish this post.
10 Most Recent Posts
Most Popular Posts in Past Year
Index of Posts by Topic
- #GotDairyJobs (4)
- About USDEC (65)
- Africa (6)
- Australia (4)
- Blog (8)
- Brazil (4)
- Canada (20)
- Central America (1)
- Cheese (58)
- Chile (1)
- China (54)
- Common food names (7)
- Company News (17)
- Consistent Supply (1)
- Crisis Management (3)
- Cuba (2)
- Dairy (6)
- Dairy checkoff (8)
- Dairy Ingredients (5)
- Dairy Management Inc. (2)
- Dairy Resources (1)
- Dairy Supply Chain (1)
- Dairy Trends (5)
- Documentation (3)
- EU (24)
- Experts on Dairy Exports (4)
- Exporter of the Year (2)
- Exports (24)
- Farming (38)
- Food Aid (8)
- Food Safety (8)
- Foodservice (3)
- Free trade agreements (34)
- Geographical Indications (GIs) (10)
- Global Marketing (87)
- Global Shipping Crisis (1)
- Got Jobs? (9)
- Indonesia (1)
- Innovation (17)
- Japan (17)
- Krysta Harden (1)
- Market Access (25)
- Market Conditions (253)
- Member Services (17)
- Mexico (40)
- Middle East (10)
- Middle East & North Africa (3)
- Middle East/North Africa (10)
- Milk (4)
- Milk Protein Concentrate (MPC) (2)
- New Zealand (11)
- Next5% (20)
- Nonfat Dry Milk/Skim Milk Powder (8)
- Nutrition (18)
- Product Innovation (6)
- Protein (4)
- Regulations (5)
- Research & Data (311)
- Russia (3)
- Singapore (10)
- South America (8)
- South Korea (10)
- Southeast Asia (25)
- Strategic Insights (1)
- Supply (1)
- Sustainability (25)
- Technology (2)
- ThinkUSADairy (5)
- TPM23 (1)
- TPP (13)
- Traceability (8)
- Trade Barriers (5)
- Trade Data (7)
- Trade Policy (72)
- TTIP (5)
- UHT Milk (7)
- USMCA (2)
- Vietnam (4)
- Whey (6)
- Whey Ingredients (2)
- Whey products (10)
- Whole Milk Powder (WMP) (3)
- World Dairy Expo (1)
- World Milk Day (1)
- Yogurt (1)
Index of Posts by Date, Author
- June 2021 (13)
- March 2015 (12)
- September 2015 (12)
- March 2014 (11)
- April 2015 (11)
- December 2015 (11)
- February 2015 (10)
- October 2015 (10)
- October 2014 (9)
- June 2015 (9)
- July 2015 (9)
- November 2015 (9)
- March 2016 (9)
- October 2019 (9)
- September 2013 (8)
- May 2015 (8)
- August 2015 (8)
- January 2016 (8)
- February 2016 (8)
- March 2017 (8)
- December 2018 (8)
- May 2019 (8)
- December 2019 (8)
- June 2014 (7)
- November 2016 (7)
- May 2017 (7)
- May 2018 (7)
- July 2020 (7)
- June 2023 (7)
- July 2016 (6)
- August 2018 (6)
- October 2018 (6)
- November 2018 (6)
- February 2019 (6)
- June 2019 (6)
- August 2019 (6)
- March 2020 (6)
- April 2020 (6)
- June 2020 (6)
- June 2022 (6)
- February 2014 (5)
- June 2016 (5)
- August 2016 (5)
- September 2016 (5)
- December 2016 (5)
- February 2017 (5)
- July 2017 (5)
- October 2017 (5)
- January 2018 (5)
- April 2018 (5)
- June 2018 (5)
- July 2018 (5)
- September 2018 (5)
- January 2019 (5)
- March 2019 (5)
- April 2019 (5)
- July 2019 (5)
- September 2019 (5)
- November 2019 (5)
- January 2020 (5)
- August 2020 (5)
- October 2020 (5)
- April 2021 (5)
- January 2022 (5)
- May 2013 (4)
- September 2014 (4)
- April 2016 (4)
- May 2016 (4)
- October 2016 (4)
- January 2017 (4)
- April 2017 (4)
- June 2017 (4)
- August 2017 (4)
- September 2017 (4)
- December 2017 (4)
- February 2018 (4)
- February 2020 (4)
- May 2020 (4)
- February 2022 (4)
- September 2022 (4)
- April 2023 (4)
- December 2023 (4)
- November 2017 (3)
- March 2018 (3)
- September 2020 (3)
- December 2020 (3)
- February 2021 (3)
- May 2021 (3)
- August 2021 (3)
- December 2021 (3)
- March 2022 (3)
- April 2022 (3)
- May 2022 (3)
- October 2022 (3)
- December 2022 (3)
- May 2023 (3)
- July 2023 (3)
- November 2023 (3)
- March 2011 (2)
- June 2011 (2)
- September 2011 (2)
- March 2012 (2)
- June 2012 (2)
- July 2012 (2)
- March 2013 (2)
- July 2013 (2)
- November 2020 (2)
- January 2021 (2)
- March 2021 (2)
- July 2021 (2)
- September 2021 (2)
- October 2021 (2)
- November 2021 (2)
- July 2022 (2)
- August 2022 (2)
- January 2023 (2)
- March 2023 (2)
- October 2023 (2)
- January 2024 (2)
- February 2024 (2)
- April 2024 (2)
- June 2024 (2)
- July 2024 (2)
- January 2010 (1)
- February 2010 (1)
- March 2010 (1)
- April 2010 (1)
- May 2010 (1)
- June 2010 (1)
- July 2010 (1)
- August 2010 (1)
- September 2010 (1)
- October 2010 (1)
- November 2010 (1)
- December 2010 (1)
- January 2011 (1)
- February 2011 (1)
- April 2011 (1)
- May 2011 (1)
- July 2011 (1)
- August 2011 (1)
- October 2011 (1)
- November 2011 (1)
- December 2011 (1)
- January 2012 (1)
- February 2012 (1)
- April 2012 (1)
- August 2012 (1)
- September 2012 (1)
- October 2012 (1)
- November 2012 (1)
- December 2012 (1)
- January 2013 (1)
- February 2013 (1)
- April 2013 (1)
- June 2013 (1)
- August 2013 (1)
- October 2013 (1)
- November 2013 (1)
- December 2013 (1)
- January 2014 (1)
- April 2014 (1)
- May 2014 (1)
- November 2022 (1)
- February 2023 (1)
- August 2023 (1)
- September 2023 (1)
- March 2024 (1)
- May 2024 (1)
- August 2024 (1)
- September 2024 (1)
- USDEC (183)
- USDEC Staff (146)
- Alan Levitt (119)
- Tom Suber (41)
- Margaret Speich (22)
- Marc A.H. Beck (15)
- Vikki Nicholson-West (11)
- Angélique Hollister (11)
- Tom Vilsack (8)
- Jaime Castaneda (7)
- Matt McKnight (7)
- Véronique Lagrange (7)
- Margaret Speich and Mark O'Keefe (7)
- Ross Christieson (7)
- Paul Rogers (6)
- Shawna Morris (5)
- William Loux (5)
- Alan Levitt and Marc Beck (5)
- Krysta Harden (4)
- USDEC Communications (3)
- Kristi Saitama (3)
- Marilyn Hershey (3)
- Brad Gehrke (3)
- Tom Quaife (2)
- Jim Mulhern (2)
- Alan Levitt and William Loux (2)
- Kara McDonald (2)
- Luke Waring (2)
- Merle McNeil (2)
- Andrei Mikhalevsky (1)
- Rodrigo Fernandez (1)
- Nick Gardner (1)
- Dermot Carey (1)
- Jeremy Travis (1)
- Annie Bienvenue (1)
- Ross Christieson and Shawna Morris (1)
- Paul Rogers and Tom Quaife (1)
- Rick Ortman (1)
- Tony Rice (1)
- Barbara O’Brien (1)
- Paul Rogers and Mark O'Keefe (1)
- Dalilah Ghazalay (1)
- Amy Wagner (1)
- Mitchell Bowling (1)
- Brad Scott (1)
- Amy Foor (1)
- Scott Lantz (1)
- Sandra Benson (1)
- Errico Auricchio (1)
- Jaclyn Krymowski (1)
- Krysta Harden, USDEC President and CEO (1)