Ongoing cheese and butterfat strength unable to offset big declines in NFDM/SMP and low-protein whey. 

While we wait for Census’s 2024 revisions, preliminary results for April show year-over-year (YOY) U.S. dairy exports fell 5% in April in milk solids equivalent (MSE) terms as trade tensions undercut low-protein whey exports to China and lagging U.S. production hampered exportable volumes of U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NFDM/SMP). Significant declines in both products hindered what was otherwise a very strong month for U.S. suppliers, driven by cheese, butter and high protein whey.

U.S. dairy export volume year-to-date (YTD) was down 1.5%. U.S. dairy export value in April grew 9% versus the previous year and was up 12% to $3.07 billion YTD.

Rising
U.S. cheese exports cleared 49,000 MT for the second month in a row. YOY volume rose 7% (+3,122 MT) in April, with widespread gains on a geographic basis: Japan +29% (+1,254 MT); Central America +31% (+1,142 MT); Australia +42% (+1,007 MT); and Southeast Asia +37% (+648 MT). Shipments to Mexico, our No. 1 market, largely held steady (+1%, +157 MT).

Solid global demand, ample U.S. supply and the U.S. price advantage versus the EU and New Zealand continue to create favorable conditions for U.S. suppliers and the country’s growing role in the global cheese market.

Tight EU butter supplies and elevated EU and New Zealand butterfat prices also continued to drive U.S. butterfat exports in April. YOY U.S. butter shipments jumped 87% for the month (+2,215 MT), while AMF exports grew more than five-fold (+3,003 MT). U.S. butter and AMF exports are both on record pace one-third of the way through the year, and indicators suggest the advantageous conditions could hold for a while.

More surprisingly, high prices seemingly did little to dent WPC80+ sales as high-protein whey exports jumped 29% (+1,614 MT) in April even after adjusting for misclassified product to China. In fact, April was so impressive, it pulled U.S. WPC80+ shipments from -1.1% in Q1 to +5.4% YTD thru April. Volumes nearly doubled to Japan (+83%, +892 MT) alongside resurgent growth to India, Australia and Europe.

YOY U.S. lactose exports grew 11% in April (+3,676 MT). It was only the second YOY increase for lactose since October 2023. Increased shipments to New Zealand (+236%, +4,010 MT) for WMP standardization helped drive the gain, but U.S. suppliers also posted solid increases to Japan (+34%) and South Korea (+85%). The magnitude of the increase, however, was somewhat inflated by low prior-year volumes.

Falling
Only two product categories failed to deliver in April: low-protein whey and NFDM/SMP. U.S. low-protein whey sales dove 19% for the month (-8,952 MT), as trade tensions and tariff uncertainty with China severely restricted business between the U.S. and its top low-protein whey customer (for more on that, see below). YOY U.S. low-protein whey exports to China fell 37% (-7,366 MT) in April.

U.S. NFDM/SMP, after rising for the first time in six months in March, plunged 21% in April (-13,626 MT). Lagging U.S. NFDM/SMP production continues to hamper U.S. export activity. YOY NFDM output has been inconsistent, and YOY SMP production hasn’t gained since last June. In short, with annualized production of NFDM/SMP at the lowest volume since 2014, export volumes are naturally limited, especially given over 70% of production is exported.

Demand from the No. 2 U.S. customer—Southeast Asia—has declined the most. YOY U.S. shipments fell 29% in April and were down 36% (-29,327 MT) year-to-date. Some of that volume is moving to other suppliers. The EU27+UK has been a force in Southeast Asian SMP sales in 2025. First-quarter SMP shipments from the EU27+UK to Southeast Asia were up 66% (+22,559 MT), to the detriment of both U.S. and New Zealand supply over that period. (EU27+UK April data has not yet been released.)

Demand from the top U.S. customer—Mexico—has been inconsistent so far this year. YOY NFDM/SMP exports fell 11% (-3,801 MT) in April, but they were still up 3% (+4,050 MT) YTD.

All numbers have been adjusted for leap year. Whey volumes have been adjusted to account for misclassification of certain U.S. whey shipments to China.

For more detailed information, as well as interactive charts and data, visit USDEC's Data Hub.

Tariffs dent U.S. whey exports to China
The U.S. trade data makes clear the effects of escalating tariffs started to be felt in April as U.S. dairy exports to China slumped dramatically during the month. April shipments tumbled to 21,592 MT MSE, down a stark 26% (-7,759 MT MSE) compared to the same month last year. This marks the weakest performance in a single month since March 2020 when volumes were still recovering from the prior trade dispute and the COVID-19 pandemic was taking root.

As expected, low-protein whey products bore the brunt of the fallout and U.S. exports under the 0404.10 heading plummeted 37% (-7,366 MT) versus April 2024 figures. Performance across other products was more mixed. Lactose shipments fell by a mere 1% (-73 MT), while cheese exports dove 60% year over year (-668 MT) and shipments of NFDM/SMP fell by 50% (-435 MT), though the declines were on relatively small volumes. It wasn’t red across the board, gratefully, as U.S. exports of WPC80+ increased 3% (+20 MT) and shipments of MPCs improved by 265 MT.

U.S. exports to China are likely to struggle in May as well. A reduction in the tariffs mid-month could help to garner additional interest in U.S. product moving forward, but many buyers and sellers will need more evidence that the relationship has stabilized before locking in long-term contracts before even accounting for the 10-20% additional tariffs that U.S. exporters face. The positive news for U.S. exporters is that even if Chinese buyers hope to avoid tariff threats by pivoting away from U.S. product, they may be limited by price and availability. The affordability and availability of key products, especially in the whey space, will likely keep them coming back to U.S. suppliers, assuming tariffs don’t again soar to prohibitively high levels.

Central America and the Caribbean continue to impress
While some destinations for U.S. exports faced challenges in April, others continued to shine. One region that has seen consistent growth in demand is Central America and the Caribbean. Shipments to the region jumped 12% (+1,287 MT MSE) during April, rising to a record 12,448 MT MSE.

Cheese exports to the region performed particularly well, with exports climbing to 7,243 MT (+23%, +1,348 MT). Gains were seen across most cheese categories, but the increase in shredded cheese exports (+63%, +991 MT) dwarfed the others. This increase likely reflects increased demand through the foodservice channel, where shredded cheese is frequently used. This trend is likely further accelerated by international tourism to the region surging 25% compared to pre-pandemic levels—twice the rate of the global average.

Cheese isn’t the only product to benefit from rising demand in the region. U.S. butterfat exports into Central America and the Caribbean soared in April. Shipments of AMF rose to a record 1,411 MT, an increase of 70% over the prior record set in December 2021. Nearly three-quarters of this product headed to the Dominican Republic. Butter exports were also up a respectable 65% (+131 MT), rising to 333 MT for the month.

Even with the overall bullishness of the region, not all products are rising. Echoing the trend seen in many parts of the world, U.S. exports of NFDM/SMP to the region slipped by 26% (-1,207 MT) to the lowest April volume since 2018. Low-protein whey exports also stumbled, with dry whey volumes tumbling 30% (-404 MT), as shipments of low-protein WPCs fell to 168 MT (-20%, -41 MT).

Even with the caveats, Central America and the Caribbean are expected to remain critical destinations for U.S. exporters given the rapid growth in demand and close partnership with local industry.

Learn more about global dairy markets

• U.S. dairy exports rebound in March

• Weaker milk powder sales weigh on otherwise positive dairy exports

• U.S. dairy exports inch up to start 2025

• U.S. dairy exports drop 1.9% in December; finish year down 0.4%

Subscribe to the U.S. Dairy Exporter Blog    

The U.S. Dairy Export Council fosters collaborative industry partnerships with processors, trading companies and others to enhance global demand for U.S. dairy products and ingredients. USDEC is primarily supported by Dairy Management Inc. through the dairy farmer checkoff. How to republish this post.