Nearly all major categories post gains over the previous June; total U.S. volume up 1.2% halfway through 2025.

Strong U.S. supply, favorable U.S. pricing in key categories like butterfat and cheese, and the pause in U.S. tariff tensions with China and elsewhere energized U.S. dairy exports in June, boosting year-over-year (YOY) milk solids equivalent (MSE) volume by 15% for the month. The large increase put total U.S. dairy exports up 1.2% year to date (YTD). Half-year export value was up 15% to $4.72 billion.

The China difference
The big gain may seem somewhat of a surprise considering the unsettled U.S. tariff situation and the up-and-down U.S. dairy export performance through the first five months. But beyond first glance, the June numbers are largely in line with trends seen in May with a couple of key differences.

1) YOY low-protein whey grew 16% (+6,190 MT) in June as the U.S.-China tariff pause reinvigorated Chinese purchasing after YOY May volumes plummeted 70% (-11,873 MT). In contrast, YOY U.S. low-protein whey volume to China grew 33% (+6,462 MT) in June.

2) Lactose rebounded, also largely due to renewed Chinese demand. YOY total U.S. lactose exports jumped 14% (+5,442 MT) in June, with shipments to China rising 42% (+4,235 MT). In contrast, in May, YOY U.S. lactose shipments to China plunged 59% (-4,727 MT).

Consistently strong performers
Other significant June gains resembled May. The star of U.S. dairy this year remained cheese. After posting a single-month record in May, U.S. cheese blazed past that benchmark in June, shipping 52,191 MT, which was 641 MT more than May 2025 despite one fewer day. Compared to June 2024, volumes soared 34% (+13,347 MT), with widespread growth to almost all major markets. (For deeper dives on cheese, butterfat and low-protein whey, see below.)

Butterfat exports also continued their torrid pace. YOY butter volume doubled in June (+3,016 MT), while anhydrous milkfat (AMF) grew 34% (+598 MT). U.S. butter suppliers posted large gains to the Middle East/North Africa (+1,059 MT), Australia (+605 MT) and the Netherlands (+593 MT).

Few shortfalls
The only negative in June was nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NFDM/SMP). U.S. shipments fell to most major destinations except Mexico. Southeast Asia led the YOY decline (-9%, -1,796 MT), with additional shortfalls to the Caribbean (-22%, -1,192 MT) and Central America (-23%, -660 MT). While YOY Mexican imports jumped 14% for the month (+4,057 MT), the performance came against weaker previous-year purchasing.

All numbers have been adjusted for leap year. Whey volumes have been adjusted to account for misclassification of certain U.S. whey shipments to China.

For more detailed information, as well as interactive charts and data, visit USDEC's Data Hub.

Cheese surges toward record-setting year
It is difficult to overstate just how impressive U.S. cheese exports have been in 2025, as shipments careen toward another record-breaking year. June’s 34% increase comes on top of an already impressive performance so far in 2025. Cumulative volumes over the first six months of the year increased 12% (+30,845 MT) over 2024, and of the five largest months of cheese exports ever, four have occurred this year alone.

Several factors are driving the impressive performance. First, global cheese demand has been strong. During the first five months of the year, total global cheese trade rose by 7% (+81,357 MT). Notably, demand has risen across a broad swath of countries with particularly strong gains seen in key Asian destinations, such as Japan and South Korea, as well as in Central America and the Caribbean. Logistical proximity to Latin American buyers and favorable trading relationships with many of these Asian countries has positioned the U.S. to capitalize on the growing global appetite for cheese.

In addition, the U.S. has plentiful, affordable cheese available to meet this global need. Total cheese production rose 2.2% over the first six months of the year as milk production recovered and new cheese processing capacity was activated. Ample supplies along with somewhat softer domestic demand have kept U.S. products at a discount compared to other international suppliers. During the first half of this year, U.S. cheese was, on average, about 20% less expensive than product sourced from Europe and New Zealand.

We expect cheese exports to continue to grow as U.S. cheese supplies remain strong over the second half of 2025 and milk production continues to expand. Although significant risks to the outlook exist from trade policy and economic perspectives, with this kind of start, 2025 is set to remain a banner year for U.S. cheese exports.

Fat shipments soar
Butterfat has also enjoyed a successful trajectory so far in 2025. U.S. butterfat exports soared to 48,630 MT during the first half of the year, up 151% (+29,259 MT) compared to the same period in 2024. While this is the strongest volume seen in recent memory, it remains just shy of the 51,164 MT shipped in the first half of 2010.

U.S. butterfat exports have risen as U.S. suppliers have picked up global share. Consistent increases in the butterfat content of raw milk in the U.S. along with increased milk and cream diversions to butter production earlier in the year have kept domestic butterfat values at a sharp discount to other international players, especially in Europe. European butter prices have averaged about 33% more than the spot CME butter price since the beginning of the year, and that differential has stretched to nearly 40%, at times.

Competitive prices have kept global buyers looking to the U.S. to fulfill their butterfat needs, overcoming challenges related to trade disruptions and an imperfect alignment in product specifications. Over the first six months of the year, this has resulted in dramatically stronger exports of U.S. butterfat to Canada (+69%, +8,572 MT), Mexico (+356%, +6,508 MT), and the Middle East/North Africa (+469%, +3,089 MT), among others.

Low-protein whey remains volatile
In sharp contrast to the consistent year-over-year gains experienced by cheese and butterfat exports, shipments of low-protein whey have been volatile so far in 2025. After improving by a modest 5% (+5,847 MT) during the first quarter of the year, shipments of dry whey, whey permeate, and whey protein concentrates with less than 80% protein plummeted during April and May as the trade relationship between the U.S. and China frayed. Volumes rebounded in June with the tariff pause, and pent-up demand drove volumes above 50,000 MT for the first time since late 2022. Once the dust settled, cumulative YTD shipments of low-protein whey trailed the prior year by a modest 3% (-8,415 MT).

China has gotten most of the attention for the slowdown in U.S. low-protein whey exports, and indeed, the progress of trade developments between the two countries will be an essential determinant of performance over the balance of the year. However, China is not the only destination responsible for the decline over the first six months of 2025. YTD exports to Japan plunged by 50% (-5,002 MT) while shipments to Mexico dropped a sizeable 18% (-4,516 MT), despite an encouraging uptick in June (+37%, +1,067 MT). Improvement in other markets will also be crucial for getting U.S. whey exports back on track.

Learn more about global dairy markets

• U.S. exports slip 2% in May

• U.S. dairy trade falls 5% in April

• U.S. dairy exports rebound in March

• Weaker milk powder sales weigh on otherwise positive dairy exports

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The U.S. Dairy Export Council fosters collaborative industry partnerships with processors, trading companies and others to enhance global demand for U.S. dairy products and ingredients. USDEC is primarily supported by Dairy Management Inc. through the dairy farmer checkoff. How to republish this post.