Higher global commodity prices undercut demand and dent U.S. NFDM/SMP and whey sales. 

After a 7% year-over-year (YOY) gain in the third quarter, U.S. dairy exports have now posted two straight monthly YOY declines to kick off Q4. U.S. export volume fell 9% in milk solids equivalent (MSE) terms in November, as nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NFDM/SMP) shipments hit their lowest point of the year (54,100 MT) and low-protein whey posted its second consecutive monthly double-digit decline (-11%, -4,926 MT).

The size of the November shortfall dragged U.S. year-to-date (YTD) MSE volume back into the red. U.S. dairy exports were down 0.3% through the first 11 months, compared to the same period the previous year.

Global demand eased in November, as dairy commodity prices (as measured by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization Food Price Index) rose to the highest level in more than a year. The U.S. was not alone in facing the demand headwinds created by elevated prices. While EU27 November data was unavailable at press time, New Zealand dairy export volume also fell for the month.

The aggregate U.S. volume shortfall the past two months after such a strong Q3 is emblematic of what has been a rollercoaster year from the start. Product-by-product performance in November similarly ran the gamut in terms of gains and losses.

Risers
The biggest bright spot for the U.S. remained cheese, which posted its 11th consecutive YOY increase (+2%, +928 MT). While that was the smallest YOY cheese increase this year, U.S. suppliers were facing strong numbers from November 2023. November 2024 volume—39,503 MT—was actually right in line with the average monthly volume of the previous five months (40,197 MT).

Consistent with U.S. performance all year, Latin America led the cheese export gains: Central America +26% (+1,049 MT); Mexico +6% (+951 MT); South America +17% (+290 MT); and the Caribbean +6% (+141 MT). Sales grew (or held steady) to virtually all major U.S. markets with the exception of South Korea, China and the UAE. (For more on cheese, see “Cheese pours into Central America and Caribbean” below.)

In addition to the cheese increase, U.S. butterfat volume soared in November (+126%, +2,479 MT), as U.S. suppliers benefitted from the price gap with the EU and New Zealand, as well as strained European supplies. A 131% rise (+1,658 MT) in November butterfat shipments to Canada helped fuel the gain.

Fallers
On the downside, YOY U.S. NFDM/SMP exports declined to nearly every major buyer: Southeast Asia -43% (-9,325 MT); Mexico -6% (-2,767 MT); South America -28% (-1,148 MT); and the Middle East/North Africa -34% (-748 MT).

In contrast, the low-protein whey decline came almost solely from one market: China. The No. 1 U.S. whey buyer saw sales slip 24% (-5,345 MT). (For more on whey sales to China, see “What is behind falling low-protein whey exports to China?” below.) Like the rollercoaster nature of overall U.S. dairy exports, monthly U.S. whey shipments to China have yo-yoed all year.

Total value
U.S. dairy export value in November rose 10% to $691.5 million, supported by elevated dairy commodity prices and stronger sales of higher value cheese and high-protein whey. YTD U.S. dairy export value through November was up 2% to $7.62 billion.

Dairy commodity prices eased slightly in December, lending hope for a stronger final month to the year. In addition, the first Global Dairy Trade auction of 2025 (which took place Jan. 7) showed further pullback in New Zealand prices.

For more detailed information, as well as interactive charts and data, visit USDEC's Data Hub.

Cheese pours into Central America and Caribbean
Cheese exports have truly been a source of delight for the U.S. dairy industry in recent months. And while Mexico, and its seemingly insatiable demand for U.S. cheese, has usurped most of the headlines, other destinations have also boasted impressive performance. For example, cheese exports to Central America and the Caribbean soared in 2024.

November was a particularly strong month as cheese shipments to Central America and the Caribbean climbed to a record high of 7,556 MT, up 19% (+1,191 MT) year over year. However, November was just the most recent in a string of exceptional export performances to the region. U.S. cheese shipments to Central America and the Caribbean bested prior-year levels in all but one month of 2024, and with just one month of data remaining, cumulative shipments for the year were up 18% (+12,391 MT).

What is almost as impressive as the overall increase in exports is the breadth of positive performance across the individual countries in the region. Nearly every major export destination experienced stronger cheese shipments in November than in the same month last year. In absolute terms, Guatemala saw the biggest increase with exports up 300 MT (+16% YOY), while Panama (+39%, +270 MT) and El Salvador (+105%, +221 MT) were close behind.

Improved economic performance and a proliferation of U.S. foodservice outlets has underpinned rising demand from the region. In addition, demographic shifts, including a growing population coupled with rising incomes, have helped to boost consumption of U.S. cheese. While a continuation of these trends should help to perpetuate strong demand, there are risks to the outlook.

Shifting political pressures could reduce remittances (money that migrants send to their families and friends in their home countries), a critical component of Latin American economies. According to data from the Inter American Development Bank, remittances are believed to have equaled 11.8% of GDP in Central America and 9.2% in the Caribbean in 2024. A reduction of this critical capital flow in the years ahead could hamstring economic growth and reduce demand for U.S. cheese.

What is behind falling low-protein whey exports to China?
Weaker demand from China was the most salient factor that undermined U.S. low-protein whey exports in November. Chinese demand buckled across all the product categories, including permeate (-36%, -3,122 MT), dry whey (-21%, -1,456 MT), and low-protein whey protein concentrates (-12%, -765 MT).

Typically, poor Chinese demand for low-protein whey products is attributed to weakness in the swine sector, which relies heavily on these items for piglet feed. However, the economics of China’s pork industry have improved materially this year. While hog prices are currently inching downward, they remain well above prior-year levels. Furthermore, the whey products moved in November were likely contracted earlier, when prices were even higher, and pork producers were likely keen to expand their output.

That suggests that the U.S. may be facing stiff competition from other international suppliers. While European export data is outstanding, we do know that U.S. prices for dry whey have been elevated relative to their European counterparts for most of this year. This has been a function of higher protein products commanding a relatively large share of the raw whey stream in the U.S., keeping supplies of low-protein products tight and prices elevated. It is possible that relatively expensive U.S. product has driven Chinese buyers to find less-expensive alternatives.

It is also possible that a misclassification of some low-protein products is keeping the figure artificially low. For months, we have observed that U.S. exports of high-protein whey to China are very strong, but that prices are meaningfully lower than high-protein whey exports to other destinations. For example, in November the unit prices of WPC80+ exported to Japan and Brazil were $10,453/MT and $11,128/MT, respectively. Meanwhile, the unit price of WPC80+ shipped to China was just $4,531/MT. This suggests that other products may be getting captured in the incorrect tariff line, perhaps at the expense of the low-protein whey category.

Learn more about global dairy markets

• U.S. exports fall 2% in October

• Strong September lifts U.S. dairy exports to best quarter in nearly two years

• U.S. dairy exports rise for second straight month

• After a Modest First Half of 2024, U.S. Dairy Exports Surged in July

  
  

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The U.S. Dairy Export Council fosters collaborative industry partnerships with processors, trading companies and others to enhance global demand for U.S. dairy products and ingredients. USDEC is primarily supported by Dairy Management Inc. through the dairy farmer checkoff. How to republish this post.