-
Strong September lifts U.S. dairy exports to best quarter in nearly two years
By USDEC Staff November 6, 2024- Tweet
Gains in milk powder, cheese, whey and other categories drive September MSE volume gain.
Year-over-year (YOY) U.S. dairy exports jumped 8.5% in September in milk solids equivalent (MSE) terms, reflecting strengthening global demand in most regions outside of China. It was the third straight monthly YOY gain, yielding the United States’ best quarter for dairy exports since October-December 2022.
YOY U.S. export value jumped 18% to $715.2 million—the second highest monthly value this year. The increase lifted the year-to-date (YTD) change in export value to +0.4%. That’s the first time YTD value has crossed into positive territory in 2024. (All YTD numbers are adjusted for Leap Day.)
U.S. suppliers saw widespread YOY gains across most product categories, including nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NFDM/SMP), cheese and whey.
U.S. NFDM/SMP sales jumped 16% (+8,481 MT) driven by sizable increases to the two largest U.S. milk powder customers: Mexico and Southeast Asia.
After a slow first half, Mexican NFDM/SMP demand heated up in the third quarter. YOY volume July-September increased 17% to 105,841 MT. That is the most NFDM/SMP Mexico has ever purchased from the U.S. in the third quarter.
U.S. NFDM/SMP exports to Southeast Asia rebounded in September after a disappointing August. YOY volume jumped 34% (+4,309 MT), led by significant gains to the Philippines (+3,161 MT), Singapore (+1,033 MT) and Malaysia (+963 MT).
U.S. cheese exports extended their growth streak to nine straight months in September, as YOY shipments rose 7% (+2,503 MT). Healthy gains across Mexico, South and Central America, and the Caribbean offset declines to East Asian markets. (For a deeper dive on strong overall U.S. dairy sales to Latin America in September, see below.)
U.S. low-protein whey exports recorded their best month of the year in September, reaching 46,307 MT (+15% compared to the previous year). Sales to Indonesia more than tripled (+3,731 MT), while volume to the top U.S. low-protein whey customer, China, increased 12% (+2,086 MT).
High-protein WPC80+, on the other hand, had a rare off-month. YOY September shipments fell 1% (-104 MT). A 53% increase to China (+843 MT) and lesser gains to India (+308 MT) and Southeast Asia (+224 MT) failed to offset softer sales to Japan (-961 MT) and several smaller buyers, including the Netherlands (-203 MT) and South Korea (-155 MT).
Despite the overall gains, weakened Chinese demand continues to dampen not only U.S. exports but those of our main competitors. U.S. MSE shipments to China fell 13% in September (compared to the previous year). While U.S. suppliers posted gains in whey to China (and in some smaller product categories like butterfat and milk protein concentrate (MPC)) in September, U.S. NFDM/SMP shipments fell 50% (-1,087 MT), cheese sales plummeted 85% (-1,646 MT), and lactose dropped 39% (-6,229 MT).
Several factors are negatively affecting Chinese dairy import demand. One is slowing economic growth. Chinese lawmakers are gathering this week to flesh out details on recently announced stimulus measures aimed at lifting domestic consumption and fueling improved economic growth. It remains too early to tell whether the stimulus will achieve those goals and strengthen dairy import demand in the process.
U.S. Exports (YTD thru September)
U.S. Dairy Exports by MonthFor more detailed information, as well as interactive charts and data, visit USDEC's Data Hub.
Latin America underpins export growthStrong demand in Latin America was a key driver of positive U.S. dairy export performance in September, with gains seen across nearly the entire region. MSE exports to Latin America surged to 78,430 MT during the month, up 17% (+11,574 MT) YOY and accounted for 41% of all U.S. exports in September, up from 38% in the same month last year.
Mexican importance to U.S. exports is irrefutable, and the seemingly insatiable appetite of buyers there has played a key role in supporting U.S. business in recent months. Exports to our southern neighbor were up a staggering 23% YOY in September, adding another 10,641 MT MSE to the U.S. export total. With these gains, Mexico’s share of U.S. exports stretched to 29%.
Notably, however, exports to Mexico shifted back toward milk powder in September, after being very cheese-heavy through the first half of the year. Exports of NFDM/SMP to Mexico jumped by 23% (+6,558 MT) in September, posting the largest YOY gain since May 2023. At the same time, cheese exports (+19%, +2,400 MT), while still above the previous year and undeniably strong by historical standards, have retreated from the record high levels witnessed earlier this year.
In addition to the gains in milk powder and cheese, several other products also witnessed hefty sales growth to Mexico in September. Butterfat exports were nearly four times greater than in the same month last year (+277%, +672 MT), while YOY shipments of lactose, MPC, dry whey, and high-protein whey also increased by 26%, 45%, 67% and 90%, respectively.
The strength of exports to Mexico during September is particularly notable given the macroeconomic challenges present during the month. Extrapolating the trend that has existed since June, the Mexican peso continued to lose value relative to the dollar across September, rendering imports more expensive. Meanwhile, economic activity in the country has begun to slow while consumer confidence is wavering. While these elements have not yet posed much of a barrier to U.S. exports, they could eventually weigh on export opportunities should they persist.
Though smaller than Mexico in absolute terms, U.S. dairy shipments to Central America and the Caribbean rose 5% (+454 MT MSE) YOY in September. Robust cheese volume drove the growth, soaring 29% YOY (+1,497 MT), as Guatemala (+24%, +306 MT) and the Dominican Republic (+26%, +244 MT) purchased more product. While cheese exports surged, however, shipments of NFDM/SMP fell by 3% (-89 MT) and exports of low-protein whey (HS Code 0404.10) faltered, falling by 28% (-445 MT) versus the same month last year.
Not to be outdone, exports to South America also lifted in September, rising by 4% (+479 MT MSE) YOY. Again, cheese exports bolstered the overall figure, soaring 60% (+1,084 MT) compared to September 2023. U.S. cheese exports rose substantially to several markets, including Chile (+49%, +487 MT), Colombia (+96%, +342 MT) and Peru (+89%, 276 MT).
While low-protein whey products fared well on balance in the region (+10%, +186 MT), high-protein whey exports slipped (-12%, -106 MT). Notably, exports of WPC80+ to Brazil slumped by 16% (-114 MT) in September. YTD U.S. WPC80+ shipments to Brazil were still up 11% (+686 MT), but September marked the second consecutive monthly decline, suggesting that buyers may be slowing purchases in response to rising prices.
Broad demand growth in Southeast Asia
U.S. milk solids exports to Southeast Asia (SEA) jumped in September—both a sign of rebounding demand in the region but also weaker YOY comparables. U.S. MSE volume to Southeast Asia in September 2023 was 29,934 MT, which was the lowest September volume since 2017. With the easier comparable, September exports rose a staggering 31% (+9,284 MT) with large increases in effectively every product:
- SMP: +34% (+4,309 MT)
- Low-protein whey: +48% (+4,052 MT)
- Cheese: +26% (+357 MT)
- Lactose: +18% (+1,222 MT)
- WPC80+: +78% (+224 MT)
- MPC: +306% (+301 MT)
But it’s not just one month. U.S. exports to SEA were up 5% YTD (+16,748 MT) with September marking the fourth month in a row of positive milk solids export growth.
Among the product highlights, Southeast Asian SMP demand has steadily grown this year, supported by improving economic fundamentals in the region (including reduced commodity prices, lower inflation, and economic growth that exceeds the global average). However, despite these more favorable buying conditions, tighter production has somewhat challenged exports out of the U.S. (although mostly on the NFDM side). Australia, as a result, has opportunistically increased SMP volumes into SEA.
Heading into the fourth quarter, we may see some additional volumes both out of Australia and New Zealand as both countries enter their flush, resulting in increased competition. But for now, the U.S. maintains dominance in the region and has held a steady market share of 35% over the last year.
Total low-protein whey demand in Southeast Asia is on a tear—up 18% (+43,316 MT) YTD through July. SEA low-protein imports averaged nearly 20% YOY growth every month this year. The U.S. is benefitting from the increasing demand. In September, U.S. exports surged 48% (+4,052 MT).
In contrast to SMP, low-protein whey prices have been increasing, although they remain well below the highs of 2022. The strong demand we’ve seen in Southeast Asia even as prices increase shows just how robust demand is in the region—driven by both economics and out of necessity, as any stocks on hand were likely worked through in 2022 and 2023.
Southeast Asian milk solids demand in total is rebounding—up 12% YTD through July. Economic conditions continue to improve in the region, spurring additional buying. The second-quarter real GDP growth rate declined in only one of the top six largest economies in SEA, with four of them growing more than 5%. Inflation also continues to decline, with 2024 inflation pegged around 3.1%—down from 4.1% last year and 5% in 2022.
As we look to finish the year, there is little to suggest demand in Southeast Asia will significantly ease, although the U.S. is likely to face increased competition from New Zealand and Australia as both countries enter their flush. On another note, milk production in the U.S. is starting to show tentative signs of growth (at least on a component adjusted level). As milk production starts moving towards positive territory, there will be more product available to fill demand in key regions like Southeast Asia.
Learn more about global dairy markets
-
U.S. dairy exports rise for second straight month
-
After a Modest First Half of 2024, U.S. Dairy Exports Surged in July
-
Cheese, whey continue to buoy U.S. dairy exports in June
-
U.S. dairy exports slip 5% in May
Subscribe to the U.S. Dairy Exporter Blog
The U.S. Dairy Export Council fosters collaborative industry partnerships with processors, trading companies and others to enhance global demand for U.S. dairy products and ingredients. USDEC is primarily supported by Dairy Management Inc. through the dairy farmer checkoff. How to republish this post.
10 Most Recent Posts
Most Popular Posts in Past Year
Index of Posts by Topic
- #GotDairyJobs (4)
- About USDEC (65)
- Africa (6)
- Australia (4)
- Blog (8)
- Brazil (4)
- Canada (20)
- Central America (1)
- Cheese (58)
- Chile (1)
- China (54)
- Common food names (7)
- Company News (17)
- Consistent Supply (1)
- Crisis Management (3)
- Cuba (2)
- Dairy (6)
- Dairy checkoff (9)
- Dairy Ingredients (5)
- Dairy Management Inc. (2)
- Dairy Resources (1)
- Dairy Supply Chain (1)
- Dairy Trends (5)
- Documentation (3)
- EU (24)
- Experts on Dairy Exports (4)
- Exporter of the Year (2)
- Exports (24)
- Farmer leaders (1)
- Farming (38)
- Food Aid (8)
- Food Safety (8)
- Foodservice (3)
- Free trade agreements (34)
- Future trends (1)
- Geographical Indications (GIs) (10)
- Global Marketing (86)
- Global Shipping Crisis (1)
- Got Jobs? (9)
- Indonesia (1)
- Innovation (17)
- Japan (17)
- Krysta Harden (1)
- Market Access (25)
- Market Conditions (255)
- Member Services (17)
- Mexico (40)
- Middle East (9)
- Middle East & North Africa (3)
- Middle East/North Africa (9)
- Milk (4)
- Milk Protein Concentrate (MPC) (2)
- New Zealand (11)
- Next5% (20)
- Nonfat Dry Milk/Skim Milk Powder (8)
- Nutrition (18)
- Product Innovation (6)
- Protein (4)
- Regulations (5)
- Research & Data (313)
- Russia (3)
- Singapore (10)
- South America (8)
- South Korea (10)
- Southeast Asia (25)
- Strategic Insights (1)
- Supply (1)
- Sustainability (25)
- Technology (2)
- ThinkUSADairy (5)
- TPM23 (1)
- TPP (13)
- Traceability (8)
- Trade Barriers (5)
- Trade Data (7)
- Trade Policy (72)
- TTIP (5)
- UHT Milk (7)
- USMCA (2)
- Vietnam (4)
- Whey (6)
- Whey Ingredients (2)
- Whey products (10)
- Whole Milk Powder (WMP) (3)
- World Dairy Expo (1)
- World Milk Day (1)
- Yogurt (1)
Index of Posts by Date, Author
- June 2021 (13)
- March 2015 (12)
- September 2015 (12)
- April 2015 (11)
- December 2015 (11)
- March 2014 (10)
- February 2015 (10)
- October 2015 (10)
- October 2014 (9)
- June 2015 (9)
- July 2015 (9)
- November 2015 (9)
- March 2016 (9)
- October 2019 (9)
- September 2013 (8)
- May 2015 (8)
- August 2015 (8)
- January 2016 (8)
- February 2016 (8)
- March 2017 (8)
- December 2018 (8)
- May 2019 (8)
- December 2019 (8)
- June 2014 (7)
- November 2016 (7)
- May 2017 (7)
- May 2018 (7)
- July 2020 (7)
- June 2023 (7)
- July 2016 (6)
- August 2018 (6)
- October 2018 (6)
- November 2018 (6)
- February 2019 (6)
- June 2019 (6)
- August 2019 (6)
- March 2020 (6)
- April 2020 (6)
- June 2020 (6)
- June 2022 (6)
- February 2014 (5)
- June 2016 (5)
- August 2016 (5)
- September 2016 (5)
- December 2016 (5)
- February 2017 (5)
- July 2017 (5)
- October 2017 (5)
- January 2018 (5)
- April 2018 (5)
- June 2018 (5)
- July 2018 (5)
- September 2018 (5)
- January 2019 (5)
- March 2019 (5)
- April 2019 (5)
- July 2019 (5)
- September 2019 (5)
- November 2019 (5)
- January 2020 (5)
- August 2020 (5)
- October 2020 (5)
- April 2021 (5)
- January 2022 (5)
- May 2013 (4)
- September 2014 (4)
- April 2016 (4)
- May 2016 (4)
- October 2016 (4)
- January 2017 (4)
- April 2017 (4)
- June 2017 (4)
- August 2017 (4)
- September 2017 (4)
- December 2017 (4)
- February 2018 (4)
- February 2020 (4)
- May 2020 (4)
- February 2022 (4)
- September 2022 (4)
- April 2023 (4)
- December 2023 (4)
- November 2017 (3)
- March 2018 (3)
- September 2020 (3)
- December 2020 (3)
- February 2021 (3)
- May 2021 (3)
- August 2021 (3)
- December 2021 (3)
- March 2022 (3)
- April 2022 (3)
- May 2022 (3)
- October 2022 (3)
- December 2022 (3)
- May 2023 (3)
- July 2023 (3)
- November 2023 (3)
- March 2011 (2)
- June 2011 (2)
- September 2011 (2)
- March 2012 (2)
- June 2012 (2)
- July 2012 (2)
- March 2013 (2)
- July 2013 (2)
- November 2020 (2)
- January 2021 (2)
- March 2021 (2)
- July 2021 (2)
- September 2021 (2)
- October 2021 (2)
- November 2021 (2)
- July 2022 (2)
- August 2022 (2)
- January 2023 (2)
- March 2023 (2)
- October 2023 (2)
- January 2024 (2)
- February 2024 (2)
- April 2024 (2)
- June 2024 (2)
- July 2024 (2)
- November 2024 (2)
- January 2010 (1)
- February 2010 (1)
- March 2010 (1)
- April 2010 (1)
- May 2010 (1)
- June 2010 (1)
- July 2010 (1)
- August 2010 (1)
- September 2010 (1)
- October 2010 (1)
- November 2010 (1)
- December 2010 (1)
- January 2011 (1)
- February 2011 (1)
- April 2011 (1)
- May 2011 (1)
- July 2011 (1)
- August 2011 (1)
- October 2011 (1)
- November 2011 (1)
- December 2011 (1)
- January 2012 (1)
- February 2012 (1)
- April 2012 (1)
- August 2012 (1)
- September 2012 (1)
- October 2012 (1)
- November 2012 (1)
- December 2012 (1)
- January 2013 (1)
- February 2013 (1)
- April 2013 (1)
- June 2013 (1)
- August 2013 (1)
- October 2013 (1)
- November 2013 (1)
- December 2013 (1)
- January 2014 (1)
- April 2014 (1)
- May 2014 (1)
- November 2022 (1)
- February 2023 (1)
- August 2023 (1)
- September 2023 (1)
- March 2024 (1)
- May 2024 (1)
- August 2024 (1)
- September 2024 (1)
- October 2024 (1)
- USDEC (183)
- USDEC Staff (147)
- Alan Levitt (119)
- Tom Suber (41)
- Margaret Speich (22)
- Marc A.H. Beck (15)
- Vikki Nicholson-West (11)
- Angélique Hollister (11)
- Tom Vilsack (8)
- Jaime Castaneda (7)
- Matt McKnight (7)
- Véronique Lagrange (7)
- Margaret Speich and Mark O'Keefe (7)
- Ross Christieson (7)
- Paul Rogers (6)
- Shawna Morris (5)
- William Loux (5)
- Alan Levitt and Marc Beck (5)
- Krysta Harden (4)
- USDEC Communications (3)
- Kristi Saitama (3)
- Marilyn Hershey (3)
- Brad Gehrke (3)
- Tom Quaife (2)
- Jim Mulhern (2)
- Alan Levitt and William Loux (2)
- Kara McDonald (2)
- Luke Waring (2)
- Merle McNeil (2)
- Andrei Mikhalevsky (1)
- Rodrigo Fernandez (1)
- Nick Gardner (1)
- Dermot Carey (1)
- Jeremy Travis (1)
- Annie Bienvenue (1)
- Ross Christieson and Shawna Morris (1)
- Paul Rogers and Tom Quaife (1)
- Rick Ortman (1)
- Tony Rice (1)
- Barbara O’Brien (1)
- Paul Rogers and Mark O'Keefe (1)
- Dalilah Ghazalay (1)
- Amy Wagner (1)
- Mitchell Bowling (1)
- Erica Louder (1)
- Brad Scott (1)
- Amy Foor (1)
- Scott Lantz (1)
- Sandra Benson (1)
- Errico Auricchio (1)
- Jaclyn Krymowski (1)
- Krysta Harden, USDEC President and CEO (1)