-
Cheese, whey continue to buoy U.S. dairy exports in June
By USDEC Staff August 7, 2024- Tweet
Gains across most product categories help offset lagging SMP and lactose volume.
U.S. dairy exports posted essentially a flat June, as gains in cheese, whey, butterfat and whole milk powder nearly offset declines in nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NFDM/SMP), lactose and milk protein concentrates. In milk solids equivalent (MSE) terms, year-over-year (YOY) volume slipped 0.3% for the month.
Halfway through 2024, U.S. dairy exports were down 1.7% in MSE (all year-to-date (YTD) numbers have been adjusted to account for the additional day for Leap Year). YTD U.S. dairy export value was off 5% to $4.09 billion.
Cheese and whey remained on a roll in June. U.S. cheese sales grew for the sixth straight month, rising 9% (+3,203 MT). It was a healthy increase and, at 38,876 MT, the second biggest June ever after June 2022. But the impact of the spring run-up in U.S. prices may be starting to show: June marked the first time monthly U.S. shipments fell below 40,000 MT since January 2024.
YTD, U.S. cheese exports were up 24% (+51,151 MT) to 263,350 MT, a record pace
Total whey exports (low-protein and WPC80+) posted their third straight month of double-digit gains in June, rising 12% (+5,446 MT), with encouraging buying signs from the top two U.S. customers: China and Southeast Asia. (For a deeper dive on whey, see “Whey exports shine” below.)
Despite improvements in Chinese whey demand, its overall dairy import appetite continues to disappoint—with all major supplying countries affected. However, total U.S. dairy shipments to China fell only 1% in June, the smallest YOY decline of the year. In addition, the rest of the world has helped make up for China’s lagging dairy import appetite, which came through in the June numbers.
YOY U.S. exports to Southeast Asia bounced back after two down months. NFDM/SMP and low-protein whey (0404.10) led the gain, with U.S. shipments to the region rising 21% (+3,474 MT) and 19% (+1,912 MT), respectively.
U.S. suppliers also saw solid YOY growth in total product volume in June to South America (+2,131 MT), South Korea (+2,033 MT) and the Caribbean (+1,620 MT).
Performance in other key destinations was mixed. For example, U.S. cheese exports to Mexico increased 12% (+1,484 MT) and cheese shipments to Central America jumped 27% (+1,001 MT), but NFDM/SMP shipments to both regions dropped significantly, falling 21% (-7,732 MT) and 36% (-1,585 MT), respectively.
Overall U.S. dairy product volume to Mexico fell 12% in June. The weaker peso, coupled with disappointing GDP growth in the second quarter, are creating headwinds for dairy imports to the region and will challenge U.S. suppliers in the months ahead, particularly given the rise in U.S. cheese prices since spring.
For more detailed information, as well as interactive charts and data, visit USDEC's Data Hub.
Whey exports shine
U.S. exporters continue to send whey products offshore at a healthy clip. Even though U.S. milk production has faltered in liquid terms so far in 2024, strong component values and upbeat demand from cheese manufacturers have resulted in a plentiful whey stream, which has fueled additional exports.Whey demand improved across the complex in June with exports rising in all four HS Codes (dry whey, WPC, modified whey and WPC80+) for the first time since January 2023.
High-protein products (HS 3502.20) continued to perform exceptionally well, with YOY shipments of WPC80+ up 5% (+344 MT) in June. Over the first half of the year, sales of WPC80+ grew by 19% (+6,886 MT), as volume to Brazil and China blossomed. Our analysis of the data suggests that some improperly coded product could be artificially boosting the totals into China, but even so, exports this year have been impressive.
High-protein whey isn’t the only category that has seen growth, however. Dry whey exports (HS 0404.10.4000) increased 12% in June (+1,511 MT), modified whey (HS 0404.10.0850) jumped 23% (+2,740 MT) and WPC (0404.10.0500, which is typically WPC34 as opposed to 3502.20 which is usually WPC80 or WPI) increased 6% (+851 MT).
Stronger demand from China boosted both dry and modified whey exports, as combined volume rose 22% (+2,268 MT) for the month. Beginning in 2023 and into this year, low prices and government mandates led to a thinning of the Chinese hog herd. But now, hog prices are on the rise, with some analysts estimating that live pig prices have improved by as much as 30% since the beginning of the year. Higher prices and improved producer margins due to lower feed costs are once again encouraging pig breeding, increasing the demand for whey products for feeding piglets.
China isn’t the only destination delivering growth for dry and modified whey exports either, as bright spots have also emerged in Southeast Asia. In June, U.S. dry whey exports to Thailand leaped by 80% (+685 MT), while Indonesia saw volumes nearly double (+98%, +441 MT). U.S. modified whey exports to the six Southeast Asian buyers (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) increased 26% (+657 MT).
Improving export demand for dry whey is putting pressure on the domestic whey price and has likely played a key part in driving the spot dry whey price up to multi-year highs in recent weeks.
Butterfat exports overcome high prices
Despite elevated domestic prices, U.S. butterfat has made some inroads into international markets. Butterfat exports soared in June, rising by 80% (+2,071 MT) against the same month last year. Most of the gain was achieved through increased exports of anhydrous milkfat (AMF), which jumped 490% YOY (+1,330 MT). June’s strong performance ushered in an increase of 41% (+1,276 MT) for AMF exports over the first half of the year.Sustained AMF demand from Central America and the Caribbean has boosted exports so far in 2024. Shipments to the region totaling 548 MT in June were the largest since February 2022 and the third-largest volume recorded in any month. Exceptionally strong volumes in June drove YTD exports up by a factor of ten (+924%, +791 MT), accounting for more than half of the increase in total AMF exports over the first six months of the year.
AMF exports to Mexico also soared in June with volumes up by 472 MT (+1,345%). However, dramatically weaker performance earlier in the year resulted in a 26% decline (-310 MT) in YTD volume.
Butter exports also surged in June, with volumes up 32% (+741 MT) versus the same month last year. However, one strong month was insufficient to overcome losses earlier in the year as cumulative butter exports YTD trailed prior year levels by 12% (-2,023 MT).
Canada has been the main protagonist in butter trade in recent months with strong demand driving the June figure upward. Butter exports to Canada jumped 49% (+773 MT). Totaling 2,339 MT, U.S. butter exports to Canada in June were the second highest ever, only falling behind the record 2,865 MT shipped in March 2022. U.S. exports of AMF to Canada also rose by 166% (+514 MT) YOY for the month, suggesting that Canadian buyers were short of fat.
Learn more about global dairy markets:-
U.S. dairy exports slip 5% in May
- April dairy exports rise 3%
-
March exports slip 7% on mixed results
-
U.S. dairy exports rebound in February
Subscribe to the U.S. Dairy Exporter Blog
The U.S. Dairy Export Council fosters collaborative industry partnerships with processors, trading companies and others to enhance global demand for U.S. dairy products and ingredients. USDEC is primarily supported by Dairy Management Inc. through the dairy farmer checkoff. How to republish this post.
10 Most Recent Posts
Most Popular Posts in Past Year
Index of Posts by Topic
- #GotDairyJobs (4)
- About USDEC (65)
- Africa (6)
- Australia (4)
- Blog (8)
- Brazil (4)
- Canada (20)
- Central America (1)
- Cheese (58)
- Chile (1)
- China (54)
- Common food names (7)
- Company News (17)
- Consistent Supply (1)
- Crisis Management (3)
- Cuba (2)
- Dairy (6)
- Dairy checkoff (8)
- Dairy Ingredients (5)
- Dairy Management Inc. (2)
- Dairy Resources (1)
- Dairy Supply Chain (1)
- Dairy Trends (5)
- Documentation (3)
- EU (24)
- Experts on Dairy Exports (4)
- Exporter of the Year (2)
- Exports (24)
- Farming (38)
- Food Aid (8)
- Food Safety (8)
- Foodservice (3)
- Free trade agreements (34)
- Geographical Indications (GIs) (10)
- Global Marketing (87)
- Global Shipping Crisis (1)
- Got Jobs? (9)
- Indonesia (1)
- Innovation (17)
- Japan (17)
- Krysta Harden (1)
- Market Access (25)
- Market Conditions (253)
- Member Services (17)
- Mexico (40)
- Middle East (10)
- Middle East & North Africa (3)
- Middle East/North Africa (10)
- Milk (4)
- Milk Protein Concentrate (MPC) (2)
- New Zealand (11)
- Next5% (20)
- Nonfat Dry Milk/Skim Milk Powder (8)
- Nutrition (18)
- Product Innovation (6)
- Protein (4)
- Regulations (5)
- Research & Data (311)
- Russia (3)
- Singapore (10)
- South America (8)
- South Korea (10)
- Southeast Asia (25)
- Strategic Insights (1)
- Supply (1)
- Sustainability (25)
- Technology (2)
- ThinkUSADairy (5)
- TPM23 (1)
- TPP (13)
- Traceability (8)
- Trade Barriers (5)
- Trade Data (7)
- Trade Policy (72)
- TTIP (5)
- UHT Milk (7)
- USMCA (2)
- Vietnam (4)
- Whey (6)
- Whey Ingredients (2)
- Whey products (10)
- Whole Milk Powder (WMP) (3)
- World Dairy Expo (1)
- World Milk Day (1)
- Yogurt (1)
Index of Posts by Date, Author
- June 2021 (13)
- March 2015 (12)
- September 2015 (12)
- March 2014 (11)
- April 2015 (11)
- December 2015 (11)
- February 2015 (10)
- October 2015 (10)
- October 2014 (9)
- June 2015 (9)
- July 2015 (9)
- November 2015 (9)
- March 2016 (9)
- October 2019 (9)
- September 2013 (8)
- May 2015 (8)
- August 2015 (8)
- January 2016 (8)
- February 2016 (8)
- March 2017 (8)
- December 2018 (8)
- May 2019 (8)
- December 2019 (8)
- June 2014 (7)
- November 2016 (7)
- May 2017 (7)
- May 2018 (7)
- July 2020 (7)
- June 2023 (7)
- July 2016 (6)
- August 2018 (6)
- October 2018 (6)
- November 2018 (6)
- February 2019 (6)
- June 2019 (6)
- August 2019 (6)
- March 2020 (6)
- April 2020 (6)
- June 2020 (6)
- June 2022 (6)
- February 2014 (5)
- June 2016 (5)
- August 2016 (5)
- September 2016 (5)
- December 2016 (5)
- February 2017 (5)
- July 2017 (5)
- October 2017 (5)
- January 2018 (5)
- April 2018 (5)
- June 2018 (5)
- July 2018 (5)
- September 2018 (5)
- January 2019 (5)
- March 2019 (5)
- April 2019 (5)
- July 2019 (5)
- September 2019 (5)
- November 2019 (5)
- January 2020 (5)
- August 2020 (5)
- October 2020 (5)
- April 2021 (5)
- January 2022 (5)
- May 2013 (4)
- September 2014 (4)
- April 2016 (4)
- May 2016 (4)
- October 2016 (4)
- January 2017 (4)
- April 2017 (4)
- June 2017 (4)
- August 2017 (4)
- September 2017 (4)
- December 2017 (4)
- February 2018 (4)
- February 2020 (4)
- May 2020 (4)
- February 2022 (4)
- September 2022 (4)
- April 2023 (4)
- December 2023 (4)
- November 2017 (3)
- March 2018 (3)
- September 2020 (3)
- December 2020 (3)
- February 2021 (3)
- May 2021 (3)
- August 2021 (3)
- December 2021 (3)
- March 2022 (3)
- April 2022 (3)
- May 2022 (3)
- October 2022 (3)
- December 2022 (3)
- May 2023 (3)
- July 2023 (3)
- November 2023 (3)
- March 2011 (2)
- June 2011 (2)
- September 2011 (2)
- March 2012 (2)
- June 2012 (2)
- July 2012 (2)
- March 2013 (2)
- July 2013 (2)
- November 2020 (2)
- January 2021 (2)
- March 2021 (2)
- July 2021 (2)
- September 2021 (2)
- October 2021 (2)
- November 2021 (2)
- July 2022 (2)
- August 2022 (2)
- January 2023 (2)
- March 2023 (2)
- October 2023 (2)
- January 2024 (2)
- February 2024 (2)
- April 2024 (2)
- June 2024 (2)
- July 2024 (2)
- January 2010 (1)
- February 2010 (1)
- March 2010 (1)
- April 2010 (1)
- May 2010 (1)
- June 2010 (1)
- July 2010 (1)
- August 2010 (1)
- September 2010 (1)
- October 2010 (1)
- November 2010 (1)
- December 2010 (1)
- January 2011 (1)
- February 2011 (1)
- April 2011 (1)
- May 2011 (1)
- July 2011 (1)
- August 2011 (1)
- October 2011 (1)
- November 2011 (1)
- December 2011 (1)
- January 2012 (1)
- February 2012 (1)
- April 2012 (1)
- August 2012 (1)
- September 2012 (1)
- October 2012 (1)
- November 2012 (1)
- December 2012 (1)
- January 2013 (1)
- February 2013 (1)
- April 2013 (1)
- June 2013 (1)
- August 2013 (1)
- October 2013 (1)
- November 2013 (1)
- December 2013 (1)
- January 2014 (1)
- April 2014 (1)
- May 2014 (1)
- November 2022 (1)
- February 2023 (1)
- August 2023 (1)
- September 2023 (1)
- March 2024 (1)
- May 2024 (1)
- August 2024 (1)
- September 2024 (1)
- USDEC (183)
- USDEC Staff (146)
- Alan Levitt (119)
- Tom Suber (41)
- Margaret Speich (22)
- Marc A.H. Beck (15)
- Vikki Nicholson-West (11)
- Angélique Hollister (11)
- Tom Vilsack (8)
- Jaime Castaneda (7)
- Matt McKnight (7)
- Véronique Lagrange (7)
- Margaret Speich and Mark O'Keefe (7)
- Ross Christieson (7)
- Paul Rogers (6)
- Shawna Morris (5)
- William Loux (5)
- Alan Levitt and Marc Beck (5)
- Krysta Harden (4)
- USDEC Communications (3)
- Kristi Saitama (3)
- Marilyn Hershey (3)
- Brad Gehrke (3)
- Tom Quaife (2)
- Jim Mulhern (2)
- Alan Levitt and William Loux (2)
- Kara McDonald (2)
- Luke Waring (2)
- Merle McNeil (2)
- Andrei Mikhalevsky (1)
- Rodrigo Fernandez (1)
- Nick Gardner (1)
- Dermot Carey (1)
- Jeremy Travis (1)
- Annie Bienvenue (1)
- Ross Christieson and Shawna Morris (1)
- Paul Rogers and Tom Quaife (1)
- Rick Ortman (1)
- Tony Rice (1)
- Barbara O’Brien (1)
- Paul Rogers and Mark O'Keefe (1)
- Dalilah Ghazalay (1)
- Amy Wagner (1)
- Mitchell Bowling (1)
- Brad Scott (1)
- Amy Foor (1)
- Scott Lantz (1)
- Sandra Benson (1)
- Errico Auricchio (1)
- Jaclyn Krymowski (1)
- Krysta Harden, USDEC President and CEO (1)