NFDM/SMP, lactose and whey declines limit MSE gains from cheese and butterfat.

Year-over-year (YOY) U.S. dairy exports fell by 5% in June in milk solid equivalent (MSE) terms, marking the first monthly U.S. export decline since September 2025. However, the decline was not particularly surprising given that June 2025 was abnormally high as tariff levels with China normalized, resulting in a surge of shipments to the country during June and July of last year. 

While U.S. cheese and butterfat shipments maintained record paces in June, decreases in milk powder, lactose, and both high- and low-protein whey kept overall volume below the previous year. 

A closer look at June performance follows. Watch for half-year analysis later this week. 

Cheese and butterfat up 

June U.S. cheese exports jumped 24% (+12,449 MT) over the previous year. Volume was 64,604 MT, topping the record of 64,186 MT set only two months earlier. Record volume to Mexico (+48% to 24,195 MT) led the growth, but U.S. suppliers continued to expand business across geographies. Other major gainers included Central America (+39%, +1,734 MT), South Korea (+18%, +1,419 MT), and Japan (+25%, +1,277 MT). 

Total U.S. butterfat exports (butter plus anhydrous milkfat) rose 48% in June (+4,214 MT). Growth remains healthy, although June’s volume (12,982 MT) was the lowest since October 2025. U.S. exports to Mexico (+426%, +1,578 MT) and the Middle East/North Africa (+108%, +1,244 MT) led the increase. 

U.S. butterfat continues to enter the Middle East primarily through Saudi Arabia (+113%, +971 MT in June YOY), with smaller but growing volumes destined for the United Arab Emirates (+167%, +73 MT). The war in the region seems to be having a greater impact on U.S. cheese demand. While YOY U.S. cheese shipments to Saudi Arabia grew 44% in June (+527 MT), cheese exports to the rest of the Middle East dropped 80% (-1,163 MT). 

For more detailed information, as well as interactive charts and data, visit USDEC's Data Hub.

Milk powder and WPC80+ down

Elevated U.S. nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NFDM/SMP) prices eroded U.S. milk powder sales again in June. Volume declined 19% (-11,325 MT), with YOY shortfalls in nearly all major markets. The Philippines remained one of the few exceptions, with YOY June up by 41% (+2,673 MT), growth we continue to attribute to previously negotiated contracts or commercial arrangements.

Insufficient exportable supply continues to limit WPC80+ exports. U.S. exports fell by 11% (-774 MT) YOY in June, with declines to each of the top five U.S. markets: Japan, China, Canada, Brazil, and India. (USDEC adjusts whey volumes to China to account for misclassified products.)

Low-protein whey growth came back down to earth in June, after posting gains of 41% and 56%, respectively, in April and May. YOY June volume fell 1% to 51,253 MT. As noted in our May trade data analysis, an easing was expected given prior-year, trade-tension-related purchasing anomalies in China. Chinese purchasing was further blunted in June by ongoing overproduction problems in the country’s pig industry. Pork prices, which had plateaued in late 2025 after more than a year of declines, began to dip again in February and hit a 16-year low in June, eroding demand for feed whey.

U.S. low-protein whey exports to China fell 26% in June (-6,843 MT), compared to the previous year. U.S. shipments to Canada (+133%, +2,984 MT), Japan (+164%, +1,741 MT), and Mexico (+37%, +1,449 MT) helped offset the decline.

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The U.S. Dairy Export Council fosters collaborative industry partnerships with processors, trading companies and others to enhance global demand for U.S. dairy products and ingredients. USDEC is primarily supported by Dairy Management Inc. through the dairy farmer checkoff. How to republish this p